Original do Estadão.
Se o MDB declinar da decisão de ter uma candidatura própria ao Palácio do Planalto, a ala que defende o apoio à reeleição do presidente Jair Bolsonaro (PL) seria amplamente majoritária na convenção nacional do partido. Esta foi uma constatação feita pela direção emedebista após um levantamento recente com base nos delegados eleitos pelos diretórios estaduais, nas bancadas e nos prefeitos do partido. O resultado mostra que, embora o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) mantenha forte interlocução com caciques do MDB no Nordeste, o bolsonarismo é mais forte na correlação de forças interna.
A pesquisa se tornou uma arma na estratégia da cúpula emedebista para tentar consolidar a pré-candidatura da senadora Simone Tebet (MS). A direção do partido, presidido pelo deputado Baleia Rossi (SP), enfrenta resistências internas para manter a candidatura própria. O argumento é que somente com um nome na disputa presidencial a sigla conseguirá manter a coesão e formar uma bancada forte no Congresso a partir de 2023. Apesar dos baixos índices de intenção de voto nas pesquisas, Simone Tebet é vista por articuladores de uma candidatura unificada no centro político como o nome mais viável no momento.
Pesa a seu favor o fato de ser mulher em uma eleição na qual o segmento feminino costuma concentrar parcela maior de indecisos.
Partidos
MDB, União Brasil, PSDB e Cidadania anunciaram acordo para lançar um candidato único à Presidência no dia 18 próximo. O União Brasil, no entanto, recuou do acerto e promete manter voo solo com seu presidente nacional, deputado Luciano Bivar (PE). Já no PSDB, boa parte da legenda rejeita um projeto presidencial próprio e vive uma queda de braço com o pré-candidato tucano, João Doria.
No caso do MDB, Tebet é vista como trincheira à força gravitacional da polarização Lula-Bolsonaro. O antipetismo, contudo, tem força nas bases mais organizadas da legenda.
Um levantamento feito pelos integrantes da executiva aponta que, sem candidatura própria, o grupo pró-Lula no MDB conseguiria apenas 30% dos votos, enquanto o atual presidente seria apoiado por 70% dos convencionais. Os cálculos foram feitos com base no quadro de delegados e na leitura do cenário político em cada região.
A Região Nordeste, onde está concentrado o apoio a Lula, conta com 107 votos, ou 25% do total da convenção. O Sudeste também tem 107 votos; o Sul, 94; o Norte, 75; e o Centro-Oeste, 44 votos. Os delegados são eleitos a partir de uma fórmula complexa que leva em conta o número de votos no partido no Estado na eleição mais recente e de parlamentares com mandato.
“A minha avaliação é a de que, sem a Simone, daria Bolsonaro na convenção. Das cinco regiões, só uma é mais favorável a Lula. A maioria do MDB tem restrições ao atual presidente, mas é antipetista”, disse ao Estadão o deputado Alceu Moreira (RS), que integra a executiva nacional do partido e preside a Fundação Ulysses Guimarães. Baleia Rossi tem feito a mesma leitura em conversas privadas e nas reuniões com correligionários.
Diretórios
A articulação em torno de Tebet reúne o apoio formal de 19 dos 27 diretórios da sigla. Segundo aliados de Baleia Rossi, a senadora teria 318 votos, ou 75% da convenção se ela ocorresse hoje. Já a ala pró-Lula no MDB – dissidências no partido já são dadas como certas – é comandada pelo senador Renan Calheiros (AL) e pelo ex-presidente do Senado Eunício Oliveira (CE).
Como efeito comparativo, Alagoas tem apenas 14 votos na convenção, ante 45 do Rio Grande do Sul e 30 de São Paulo. O MDB tem 8.847 mandatários, sendo 794 prefeitos e 674 vices. “O MDB é um dos partidos com características mais descentralizadas do Brasil”, disse o cientista político Humberto Dantas.
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