Com informações da Reuters.
Projeção de crescimento brasileira foi ajustada para cima em 0,5 pontos percentuais em 2022 e para baixo em 0,2 pontos em 2023. País faz parte do único grupo que teve revisões para cima, já que se beneficia dos preços mais altos das commodities no mercado internacional.
Com “piora significativa” das perspectivas, incluindo a guerra na Ucrânia e aceleração da inflação global, o Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) revisou para baixo as expectativas de crescimento da economia global para 2022 e 2023.
Apesar de o FMI revisar para baixo a previsão de crescimento para o Brasil em 2022, a projeção de alta no PIB brasileiro é de 0,8%.
Na atualização do relatório World Economic Outlook, publicado nesta terça-feira (19), o fundo espera duas altas idênticas do PIB global de 3,6% para este ano e para o próximo, o que significa redução de 0,8 e 0,2 pontos percentuais, respectivamente, comparadas às previsões feitas no início do ano.
Para o Brasil, a projeção foi ajustada para cima em 0,5 pontos percentuais em 2022 e para baixo em 0,2 pontos percentuais em 2023. Assim, o FMI espera uma alta do PIB brasileiro de 0,8% neste ano e 1,4% no próximo.
A última rodada de previsões do FMI havia sido publicada em janeiro. Naquela ocasião, o fundo ressaltou que a recuperação global deveria se fortalecer a partir do segundo trimestre após um impacto pouco duradouro da variante ômicron do coronavírus nos indicadores de atividade econômica.
De lá para cá, porém, o FMI afirma que a guerra entre Ucrânia e Rússia adicionou um enorme grau de incerteza, tanto como crise humanitária, como nas consequências diretas nas economias dos países envolvidos.
“O grave colapso na Ucrânia é resultado direto da invasão, destruição de infraestrutura e êxodo de seu povo. Na Rússia, o declínio acentuado reflete o impacto das sanções com o rompimento dos laços comerciais, a intermediação financeira doméstica bastante prejudicada e a perda de confiança”, diz o relatório.
O FMI cita ainda, como pontos de prejuízo à atividade, a persistência da inflação na economia global, que gera aumento de taxas de juros em todo mundo, e os desajustes persistentes causados pela Covid, em especial na China, onde a política de contágio zero causa novos gargalos nas cadeias de suprimentos globais.
“Pela natureza inédita do choque, destacamos que a incerteza em torno dessas projeções é considerável, muito além do intervalo usual. O crescimento pode desacelerar significativamente mais, enquanto a inflação pode ficar mais alta do que o esperado se, por exemplo, as sanções destinadas a acabar com a guerra se estenderem a um volume ainda maior de energia russa e outras exportações”, diz o texto.
Para o FMI, a guerra na Ucrânia se soma a uma série de choques de oferta que atingiram a economia global ao longo da pandemia, o que amplificou o efeito da escassez de oferta nos setores de energia, agrícola e de minérios.
Antes mesmo da guerra, muitas economias penavam com o aumento dos preços das commodities e dos desequilíbrios de oferta. Tanto mercados emergentes como economias desenvolvidas haviam antecipado o momento de aperto da política monetária.
A novidade nesse sentido é que países com ligações comerciais e financeiras estreitas com a Rússia e Ucrânia terão ainda mais desafios para vencer as dificuldades de mercado. A escassez de suprimentos relacionada à guerra amplificará pressões que já estavam instaladas.
“Como a Rússia é um grande fornecedor de petróleo, gás e metais, e a Ucrânia, de trigo e milho, o declínio atual e previsto na oferta dessas commodities já elevou seus preços drasticamente. Europa, Cáucaso e Ásia Central, Oriente Médio e Norte da África e África Subsaariana são os mais afetados“, diz o texto.
“Com cadeias de suprimentos globais estreitamente integradas, interrupções de produção em um país podem se espalhar de forma rápida, globalmente“, prossegue.
Para 2022, a inflação está projetada em 5,7% em economias avançadas, e de 8,7% em mercados emergentes e economias em desenvolvimento. Isso significa um aumento de 1,8 e 2,8 pontos a mais do que o projetado em janeiro.
Ainda que esteja em situação semelhante à de outros emergentes, o Brasil tem algumas particularidades que o beneficiam. O grupo de países exportadores de commodities (excluindo a Rússia) foi o único que teve revisões para cima na projeção de crescimento.
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